Chinese Journal OF Rice Science ›› 2018, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (3): 265-276.DOI: 10.16819/j.1001-7216.2018.7104
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Tongyu ZHOU1, Min JIANG1,2,*(), Wangliang SUN1, Bin SUN1
Received:
2017-08-29
Revised:
2017-11-09
Online:
2018-05-10
Published:
2018-05-10
Contact:
Min JIANG
通讯作者:
江敏
基金资助:
CLC Number:
Tongyu ZHOU, Min JIANG, Wangliang SUN, Bin SUN. Simulation of Rice Adaptability Adjustmentin Fujian Province Under RCPs Scenarios[J]. Chinese Journal OF Rice Science, 2018, 32(3): 265-276.
周桐宇, 江敏, 孙汪亮, 孙彬. RCPs情景下福建省水稻生产的适应性调整模拟研究[J]. 中国水稻科学, 2018, 32(3): 265-276.
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URL: http://www.ricesci.cn/EN/10.16819/j.1001-7216.2018.7104
水稻品种Rice combination | 类型Type | P1 | P2R | P5 | P2O | G1 | G2 | G3 | G4 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
红优2155Hongyou 2155 | 迟熟早籼EILM | 601.2 | 54.7 | 135.3 | 12.4 | 88.6 | 0.034 | 0.48 | 1.13 |
花2优3301 Hua 2 you 3301 | 早熟中籼MIEM | 703.0 | 90.0 | 370.3 | 11.5 | 88.0 | 0.016 | 1.15 | 1.10 |
两优667Liangyou 667 | 中熟中籼MIMM | 620.5 | 132.0 | 660.2 | 11.7 | 72.0 | 0.019 | 0.47 | 0.65 |
广优2186 Guangyou 2186 | 迟熟中籼MILM | 716.0 | 75.4 | 515.0 | 11.3 | 99.0 | 0.016 | 1.64 | 1.10 |
深优9775 Shenyou 9775 | 早熟晚籼LIEM | 505.0 | 204.0 | 124.0 | 11.0 | 59.0 | 0.016 | 0.53 | 1.14 |
泰丰优656 Taifengyou 656 | 中熟晚籼LIMM | 696.0 | 130.0 | 439.0 | 11.0 | 77.0 | 0.016 | 0.06 | 0.67 |
泰丰优2098 Taifengyou 2098 | 迟熟晚籼LILM | 811.0 | 204.0 | 214.0 | 11.1 | 47.0 | 0.017 | 1.01 | 1.04 |
Table 1 Genetic parameters of representative rice combinations in Fujian Province, China.
水稻品种Rice combination | 类型Type | P1 | P2R | P5 | P2O | G1 | G2 | G3 | G4 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
红优2155Hongyou 2155 | 迟熟早籼EILM | 601.2 | 54.7 | 135.3 | 12.4 | 88.6 | 0.034 | 0.48 | 1.13 |
花2优3301 Hua 2 you 3301 | 早熟中籼MIEM | 703.0 | 90.0 | 370.3 | 11.5 | 88.0 | 0.016 | 1.15 | 1.10 |
两优667Liangyou 667 | 中熟中籼MIMM | 620.5 | 132.0 | 660.2 | 11.7 | 72.0 | 0.019 | 0.47 | 0.65 |
广优2186 Guangyou 2186 | 迟熟中籼MILM | 716.0 | 75.4 | 515.0 | 11.3 | 99.0 | 0.016 | 1.64 | 1.10 |
深优9775 Shenyou 9775 | 早熟晚籼LIEM | 505.0 | 204.0 | 124.0 | 11.0 | 59.0 | 0.016 | 0.53 | 1.14 |
泰丰优656 Taifengyou 656 | 中熟晚籼LIMM | 696.0 | 130.0 | 439.0 | 11.0 | 77.0 | 0.016 | 0.06 | 0.67 |
泰丰优2098 Taifengyou 2098 | 迟熟晚籼LILM | 811.0 | 204.0 | 214.0 | 11.1 | 47.0 | 0.017 | 1.01 | 1.04 |
Fig. 2. Verification results of CERES-Rice model in the main ricegrowing regions in Fujian Province, China. **, Significant correlation at 0.01 level.
稻区 Rice region | 品种类型 Varietal type | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
模拟产量 Simulated yield /(kg∙hm-2) | 稳产性指标ΔSD% | 模拟产量 Simulated yield /(kg∙hm-2) | 稳产性指标ΔSD% | |||
闽东南双季稻区 Double-cropping rice region in southeastern Fujian | 早熟晚籼 LIEM | 4495.8 | 8.6 | 4842.7 | 11.3 | |
中熟晚籼 LIMM | 5533.8 | 9.7 | 5983.0 | 18.4 | ||
晚熟晚籼 LILM | 6045.1 | 4.3 | 6133.4 | 5.7 | ||
闽西北双季稻区 Double-cropping rice region in northwestern Fujian | 早熟晚籼 LIEM | 4948.1 | 9.5 | 5277.2 | 9.0 | |
中熟晚籼 LIMM | 5843.6 | 12.2 | 6235.2 | 18.3 | ||
晚熟晚籼 LILM | 6268.4 | 3.2 | 6336.8 | 4.1 | ||
闽西北山地单季稻区 Single-cropping rice region In hilly area of northwestern Fujian | 早熟中籼 MIEM | 9305.2 | 1.7 | 9465.4 | 2.4 | |
中熟中籼 MIMM | 7429.8 | 11.4 | 7698.0 | 14.6 | ||
晚熟中籼 MILM | 10079.3 | 2.0 | 10205.9 | 2.6 |
Table 2 Simulated yieldsand stability index(ΔSD%) for variousvarietal types under the tworepresentative concentration pathway(RCP) scenarios in different rice growing regions of Fujian Province.
稻区 Rice region | 品种类型 Varietal type | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
模拟产量 Simulated yield /(kg∙hm-2) | 稳产性指标ΔSD% | 模拟产量 Simulated yield /(kg∙hm-2) | 稳产性指标ΔSD% | |||
闽东南双季稻区 Double-cropping rice region in southeastern Fujian | 早熟晚籼 LIEM | 4495.8 | 8.6 | 4842.7 | 11.3 | |
中熟晚籼 LIMM | 5533.8 | 9.7 | 5983.0 | 18.4 | ||
晚熟晚籼 LILM | 6045.1 | 4.3 | 6133.4 | 5.7 | ||
闽西北双季稻区 Double-cropping rice region in northwestern Fujian | 早熟晚籼 LIEM | 4948.1 | 9.5 | 5277.2 | 9.0 | |
中熟晚籼 LIMM | 5843.6 | 12.2 | 6235.2 | 18.3 | ||
晚熟晚籼 LILM | 6268.4 | 3.2 | 6336.8 | 4.1 | ||
闽西北山地单季稻区 Single-cropping rice region In hilly area of northwestern Fujian | 早熟中籼 MIEM | 9305.2 | 1.7 | 9465.4 | 2.4 | |
中熟中籼 MIMM | 7429.8 | 11.4 | 7698.0 | 14.6 | ||
晚熟中籼 MILM | 10079.3 | 2.0 | 10205.9 | 2.6 |
Fig. 3. Changes in proper sowing dates of early rice and single-cropping rice under the two representative concentration pathway(RCP) scenarios in Fujian Province, China. A, RCP4.5 scenario; B, RCP8.5 scenario; –10d,–5d, 0d, +5d and +10d represent 10 days advanced, 5 days advanced, the same with the baseline, 5 days delayed and 10 days delayed, respectively. The same as those in Fig. 4.
Fig. 4. Changes in proper sowing dates of late rice and single-cropping rice under the two representative concentration pathway(RCP) scenarios in Fujian Province, China.
Fig. 5. Change in rice yields under the tworepresentative concentration pathway(RCP) scenarioswithadaptive adjustments compared with the base yields in different rice growing regions in Fujian Province, China. RegionⅠ, Double-cropping rice region in Southeastern Fujian;RegionⅡ, Double-cropping rice region in Northwestern Fujian; Region Ⅲ, Single-cropping rice region in mountain area of Northwestern Fujian; ER, Early rice; LR, Late rice; SR, Single-cropping rice;NCE, Without taking into consideration CO2 fertilization effect; CE, Taking into consideration CO2 fertilization effect; CE+C, Combined effects of CE and optimized in cultivar; CE+C+SD, Combined effects of CE+C and adjustments in sowing date
Fig. 6. Change in rice yields underthe two representative concentration pathway(RCP) scenarioswith adaptive adjustments compared with the base yieldsin different rice growing regions in Fujian Province, China. A and B, Early rice and single-cropping rice region; C and D, Late rice and single-cropping rice region; A and C, RCP4.5 scenario; B and D, RCP8.5 scenario.
稻区 Rice region growing | 样点 Site | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
品种搭配 Variety collocation | 播种日期 Sowing date | 品种搭配 Variety collocation | 播种日期 Sowing date | ||||||
闽东南双季稻区 Double-cropping rice region in southeastern Fujian | 闽清、永泰 Minqing,Yongtai | 晚熟早籼+中熟晚籼 EILM+LIMM | 提前10d+提前10d 10 days advanced +10 days advanced | 晚熟早籼+中熟晚籼 EILM+LIMM | 提前10d+提前10d 10 days advanced +10 days advanced | ||||
其余样点 The rest sites | 晚熟早籼+晚熟晚籼 EILM+LILM | 提前10d+推迟10d 10 days advanced +10 days delayed | 晚熟早籼+晚熟晚籼 EILM+LILM | 提前10d+推迟10d 10 days advanced +10 days delayed | |||||
闽西北双季稻区 Double-cropping rice region in northwestern Fujian | 福鼎 Fuding | 晚熟早籼+中熟晚籼 EILM+LIMM | 提前10d+提前10d 10 days advanced +10 days advanced | 晚熟早籼+中熟晚籼 EILM+LIMM | 提前10d+提前10d 10 days advanced +10 days advanced | ||||
其余样点 The rest sites | 晚熟早籼+晚熟晚籼 EILM+LILM | 提前10d+推迟10d 10 days advanced +10 days delayed | 晚熟早籼+晚熟晚籼 EILM+LILM | 提前10d+推迟10d 10 days advanced +10 days delayed | |||||
闽西北山地单季稻区 SCR | 所有样点 All sites | 晚熟中籼 MILM | 提前10d 10 days advanced | 晚熟中籼 MILM | 提前10d 10 days advanced |
Table 3 Rice production patterns and managements with adaptive adjustments under the two representative concentration pathway(RCP) scenarios in different rice growing regions of Fujian Province, China.
稻区 Rice region growing | 样点 Site | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
品种搭配 Variety collocation | 播种日期 Sowing date | 品种搭配 Variety collocation | 播种日期 Sowing date | ||||||
闽东南双季稻区 Double-cropping rice region in southeastern Fujian | 闽清、永泰 Minqing,Yongtai | 晚熟早籼+中熟晚籼 EILM+LIMM | 提前10d+提前10d 10 days advanced +10 days advanced | 晚熟早籼+中熟晚籼 EILM+LIMM | 提前10d+提前10d 10 days advanced +10 days advanced | ||||
其余样点 The rest sites | 晚熟早籼+晚熟晚籼 EILM+LILM | 提前10d+推迟10d 10 days advanced +10 days delayed | 晚熟早籼+晚熟晚籼 EILM+LILM | 提前10d+推迟10d 10 days advanced +10 days delayed | |||||
闽西北双季稻区 Double-cropping rice region in northwestern Fujian | 福鼎 Fuding | 晚熟早籼+中熟晚籼 EILM+LIMM | 提前10d+提前10d 10 days advanced +10 days advanced | 晚熟早籼+中熟晚籼 EILM+LIMM | 提前10d+提前10d 10 days advanced +10 days advanced | ||||
其余样点 The rest sites | 晚熟早籼+晚熟晚籼 EILM+LILM | 提前10d+推迟10d 10 days advanced +10 days delayed | 晚熟早籼+晚熟晚籼 EILM+LILM | 提前10d+推迟10d 10 days advanced +10 days delayed | |||||
闽西北山地单季稻区 SCR | 所有样点 All sites | 晚熟中籼 MILM | 提前10d 10 days advanced | 晚熟中籼 MILM | 提前10d 10 days advanced |
稻区 Rice region | 稻作类型 Rice pattern | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
不考虑适应性调整 Without adaptive adjustment | 考虑适应性调整 With adaptive adjustment | 不考虑适应性调整 Without adaptive adjustment | 考虑适应性调整 With adaptive adjustment | ||||||
对总产量变化的贡献率 Contribution to change in overall rice output / % | |||||||||
闽东南双季稻区 Double-cropping rice region in southeastern Fujian | 早稻Early rice | 0.31 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.67 | ||||
后季稻Late rice | 0.20 | 1.53 | 0.75 | 1.73 | |||||
闽西北双季稻区 Double-cropping rice region in northwestern Fujian | 早稻Early rice | 0.05 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 0.33 | ||||
后季稻Late rice | 0.25 | 2.04 | 0.98 | 2.21 | |||||
闽西北山地单季稻区 Single-cropping rice region in hilly area of northwestern Fujian | 单季稻Single rice | –0.16 | 5.00 | 0.63 | 5.60 | ||||
总产量变化Change in overall rice output / % | 0.66 | 9.25 | 3.05 | 10.54 |
Table 4 Contribution of overall rice output of rice growing regions toFujian Province with adaptive adjustment and without adaptive adjustment under the tworepresentative concentration pathway(RCP) scenarios.
稻区 Rice region | 稻作类型 Rice pattern | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
不考虑适应性调整 Without adaptive adjustment | 考虑适应性调整 With adaptive adjustment | 不考虑适应性调整 Without adaptive adjustment | 考虑适应性调整 With adaptive adjustment | ||||||
对总产量变化的贡献率 Contribution to change in overall rice output / % | |||||||||
闽东南双季稻区 Double-cropping rice region in southeastern Fujian | 早稻Early rice | 0.31 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.67 | ||||
后季稻Late rice | 0.20 | 1.53 | 0.75 | 1.73 | |||||
闽西北双季稻区 Double-cropping rice region in northwestern Fujian | 早稻Early rice | 0.05 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 0.33 | ||||
后季稻Late rice | 0.25 | 2.04 | 0.98 | 2.21 | |||||
闽西北山地单季稻区 Single-cropping rice region in hilly area of northwestern Fujian | 单季稻Single rice | –0.16 | 5.00 | 0.63 | 5.60 | ||||
总产量变化Change in overall rice output / % | 0.66 | 9.25 | 3.05 | 10.54 |
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