中国水稻科学

• 研究简报 • 上一篇    下一篇

浙江省褐飞虱模式预报研究

浙江省褐飞虱模式预报研究协作组   

  1. 浙江省褐飞虱模式预报研究协作组
  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:1995-07-10 发布日期:1995-07-10

Studies on the Forecasting Models of Brown Planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens (Stal), in Zhejiang

Coorperative Research Group for the Forecasting Model of Brown Planthopper in Zhejiang   

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:1995-07-10 Published:1995-07-10

关键词: 模式预报, 褐飞虱, 回归分析

Abstract: Used the historical data over 15 years from five cities/counties, a group of forecasting models was established by means of stepwise regression. The models could forecast both emergent quantity and degree of the main endangering generation of brown planthopper (BPH) on late-season rice. Through eight-year forecasting and verifying, 73 models were chosen from 469 ones. These models, a complete group of forecasting models, could be used as long, middle and short term forecasting. The accurate rate of forecast was 93.98% for the whole, and 87.5%, 95.83 % and 100% for either. This forecasting method suited to more than 400 thousand ha paddy-field covered 23 cities/counties in Zhejiang. The middle and long term model could forecast 25 days and 55 days earlier than conventional forecasting method, respectively.

Key words: model forecast, Nilaparvata lugens, regression analysis