1981−2022年四川盆地再生稻抽穗灌浆期热量资源时空演变特征

doi:10.16819/j.1001-7216.2025.240614

中国水稻科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (6): 873-886.DOI: 10.16819/j.1001-7216.2025.240614

• 研究报告 • 上一篇

1981−2022年四川盆地再生稻抽穗灌浆期热量资源时空演变特征

罗孳孳¹^,², 张德军¹^,², 陈东东³^,⁴^,^*, 毕淼¹^,², 朱玉涵¹^,², 韩旭⁵, 武强¹^,², 李月臣⁶

¹中国气象局气候资源经济转化重点开放实验室，重庆 401147
²重庆市气象科学研究所，重庆 401147
³四川省农业气象中心，成都 610072
⁴南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室，成都 610072
⁵重庆市江津现代农业气象试验站，重庆 402260
⁶西南大学地理科学学院，重庆 400715

收稿日期:2024-06-24 修回日期:2024-09-29 出版日期:2025-11-10 发布日期:2025-11-19
通讯作者: * email:peter19831203@163.com
基金资助:
重庆市自然科学基金面上项目(CSTB2025NSCQ-GPX1065);重庆市自然科学基金资助项目(CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX0442);农业科技成果转化资金资助项目(2013GB24160637);重庆市气象部门业务技术攻关项目(YWJSGG-202213)

Characteristics of Spatiotemporal Evolution of Thermal Resources in Ratoon Rice at Heading and Grain-filling Stages in Sichuan Basin in 1981−2022

LUO Zizi¹^,², ZHANG Dejun¹^,², CHEN Dongdong³^,⁴^,^*, BI Miao¹^,², ZHU Yuhan¹^,², HAN Xu⁵, WU Qiang¹^,², LI Yuechen⁶

¹Key Opening Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy, China Meteorological Administration, Chongqing 401147, China
²Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Chongqing 401147, China
³Agrometeorological Center of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China
⁴Provincial Key Laboratory of Water-Saving Agriculture in Hill Areas of Southern China, Chengdu 610072, China
⁵Chongqing Jiangjin Modern Agrometeorology Experimental Station, Chongqing 402260, China
⁶School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China

Received:2024-06-24 Revised:2024-09-29 Online:2025-11-10 Published:2025-11-19
Contact: * email:peter19831203@163.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】探究气候变化背景下四川盆地再生稻抽穗灌浆期热量资源的动态变化，为保障区域再生稻安全生产提供科学参考。【方法】采用四川盆地再生稻区1981—2022年气象站日平均气温和农业气象站中稻成熟期观测数据，分析区域再生稻抽穗灌浆期热量资源、安全齐穗期及灌浆终止期的时空演变特征。【结果】1981—2022年，四川盆地再生稻安全齐穗期、灌浆终止期均呈显著推迟趋势，气候倾向率分别为1.58 d·(10a)^-1、2.0 d·(10a)^-1，区域80%气候保证率日期分别为9月10日−17日、10月15日−28日。安全齐穗期和灌浆终止期的空间分布格局相似，总体自盆地西北方向东南方推迟。区域抽穗灌浆期热量资源增加趋势显著，平均生长度日普遍为100~300℃·d，气候倾向率达9.72℃·d·(10a)^-1，呈自盆地西北方向东南方增加的空间分布特征。2010年代至近期，抽穗灌浆期生长度日在200℃·d以上的区域向盆地西北方大幅扩大，面积较1980年代增长超过1万km²。自21世纪以来，全域年代际安全齐穗期和灌浆终止期的整体时间拉长，抽穗灌浆期热量资源波动加剧。【结论】气候变化背景下四川盆地再生稻抽穗灌浆期具备更丰富的热量资源，有利于再生稻蓄留面积的扩大和种植模式的多元化发展，但极端高温、低温天气对热量资源稳定性的影响增大，是再生稻生产的不利气候因素。

关键词: 再生稻, 抽穗灌浆, 热量资源, 四川盆地

Abstract:

【Objective】 This study investigates the dynamic changes of thermal resources during the heading and grain-filling stages of ratoon rice in the Sichuan Basin under climate change, aiming to provide a scientific reference for ensuring the safe production of ratoon rice in the region. 【Method】 Using daily mean temperature data from meteorological stations and observational data on the maturity stage of main-crop rice from agrometeorological stations within the ratoon rice planting area of the Sichuan Basin from 1981 to 2022, we analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of thermal resources, the safe full-heading date (SFHD), and the grain-filling termination date (GFTD). 【Result】 The results show that both the SFHD and GFTD of ratoon rice exhibited a significant delaying trend from 1981 to 2022, with climate tendency rates of 1.58 d·(10a)⁻¹ and 2.0 d·(10a)⁻¹, respectively. The dates with 80% climatic guarantee probability ranged from September 10-17 for SFHD and October 15-28 for GFTD. The spatial distributions of SFHD and GFTD were similar, showing a progressive delay from the northwest to the southeast of the basin. Thermal resources during the heading and grain-filling stages showed a significant increasing trend, with growing degree days (GDD) generally ranging between 100 and 300 ℃·d and a climate tendency rate of 9.72 ℃·d·(10a)⁻¹. Spatially, GDD increased from the northwest to the southeast of the basin. From the 2010s onward, the area with GDD above 200 ℃·d expanded significantly toward the northwest, increasing by more than 10,000 km² compared to that in the 1980s. Since the 2000s, the interdecadal durations of both SFHD and GFTD have lengthened overall, while fluctuations in thermal resources during these stages have intensified. 【Conclusion】 Under climate change, the heading and grain-filling stages of ratoon rice in the Sichuan Basin are characterized by more abundant thermal resources, which is conducive to expanding the cultivation area and promoting diversified planting patterns. However, the increasing impact of extreme high- and low-temperature events on the stability of thermal resources has become an unfavorable climatic factor for ratoon rice production.

Key words: ratoon rice, heading and grain-filling, thermal resources, Sichuan Basin

罗孳孳, 张德军, 陈东东, 毕淼, 朱玉涵, 韩旭, 武强, 李月臣. 1981−2022年四川盆地再生稻抽穗灌浆期热量资源时空演变特征[J]. 中国水稻科学, 2025, 39(6): 873-886.

LUO Zizi, ZHANG Dejun, CHEN Dongdong, BI Miao, ZHU Yuhan, HAN Xu, WU Qiang, LI Yuechen. Characteristics of Spatiotemporal Evolution of Thermal Resources in Ratoon Rice at Heading and Grain-filling Stages in Sichuan Basin in 1981−2022[J]. Chinese Journal OF Rice Science, 2025, 39(6): 873-886.

图/表 10

图1 研究区海拔高度与气象站分布

Fig. 1. Altitude and distribution of meteorological stations in the investigation region

图2 四川盆地再生稻区亚区分区

Fig. 2. Subdivision of planting area of ratoon rice in Sichuan Basin

图3 80%气候保证率再生稻安全齐穗期与灌浆终止期日序空间分布

Fig. 3. Spatial distribution of safe full heading dates and safe grain-filling dates of ratoon rice with 80% climate guarantee rate

图4 再生稻抽穗灌浆期GDD均值空间分布

Fig. 4. Spatial distribution of mean GDD at heading and grain-filling stages of ratoon rice

图5 安全齐穗期、灌浆终止期和抽穗灌浆期GDD年际变化及其气候倾向率空间分布 A—C中圆点代表1981—2022年66个站点再生稻安全齐穗期日序、灌浆终止期日序和抽穗灌浆期GDD的数值，蓝色线条为年际变化趋势线。

Fig. 5. Interannual variability of safe full heading dates, safe grain-filling dates, GDD at heading and grain-filling stages, and spatial distribution of their climatic propensities The dots in panel 5 A-C represent the values of safe full heading dates, safe grain-filling dates, or GDD at heading and grain-filling stages for 66 stations of ratoon rice from 1981 to 2022. The blue line represent is the trend line of interannual the interannual variation.

图6 安全齐穗期、灌浆终止期日序及抽穗灌浆期GDD年代际变化黑色圆点为时段内各年66个站点再生稻安全齐穗期日序、灌浆终止期日序和抽穗灌浆期GDD的数值。数值按由小到大的顺序从左下至右上排列。红色横线为该时段内数值的中位数，n为样本数。

Fig. 6. Interdecadal variability of safe full heading dates, safe grain-filling dates, GDD at heading and grain-filling stages The black dots represent the values of safe full heading dates, safe grain-filling dates, or GDD at heading to grain-filling stage for 66 stations of ratoon rice in each year during the time interval. The values are arranged in ascending order from bottom left to top right. The red horizontal line represents the median value of the values during the time interval. n is the number of samples.

图7 P1—P4时段再生稻安全齐穗期日序空间分布

Fig. 7. Spatial distribution of safe heading dates of ratoon rice during P1-P4 time interval

图8 P1—P4时段再生稻灌浆终止期日序空间分布

Fig. 8. Spatial distribution of safe grain-filling dates of ratoon rice during P1-P4 time interval

图9 P1—P4时段再生稻抽穗灌浆期GDD均值空间分布

Fig. 9. Spatial distribution of mean GDD at heading and grain-filling stages of ratoon rice during P1-P4 time interval

表1 研究区P1—P4时段GDD值与不同热量等级的区域面积

Table 1. GDD values and area of different thermal levels in the study area during P1-P4 interval

时段 Time interval	GDD(℃·d)			面积Area(×10⁴km²)
时段 Time interval	平均值 Average value	最大值 Maximum value	最小值 Minimum value	R1	R2	R3	R4
P1	185.4	302.4	70.8	1.62	3.16	2.60	0.55
P2	173.8	282.8	62.4	2.08	3.46	2.20	0.07
P3	213.9	340.2	87.7	0.72	2.42	2.90	2.01
P4	203.1	317.6	82.8	0.85	2.89	3.00	1.31

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1981−2022年四川盆地再生稻抽穗灌浆期热量资源时空演变特征

Characteristics of Spatiotemporal Evolution of Thermal Resources in Ratoon Rice at Heading and Grain-filling Stages in Sichuan Basin in 1981−2022

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