Abstract: Using GIS as an analyzing tool, the characteristics,results,and trends of spatial variation of total rice production in Zhejiang Province are analyzed based on the rice production database (on county basis) within three periods (in 1977, 1987 and 1997) by statistical analyses .The total rice production of 87% counties in Zhejiang Province has increased absolutely from 1977 to 1987,but 76% counties has absolutely decreased from 1987 to 1997.Generally the variation in total rice production is determined by two main factors, i.e. rice planting area and yield.The key driving force of rice total production variation was yield from 1977 to 1987 and rice planting area from 1987 to 1997.The rice production in the future will be decreased in Zhejiang Province.The curves of rice planting areas are polynomial which the peak point is in the middle of 1970’s. The rice yield and trend yield increase from 1949 to 1998.The effect of meteorological elements on year by year variation of rice unit yield accounts for more than 70% of year by year variation of rice yield,the technological and social elements accounts for less than 30% year by year variation of rice yield.

Key words: rice, yield, time and spatial variation, geographical information system

摘要： 将地理信息系统引入浙江省的水稻产量的时空分布特征研究，它能定量、直观地表达水稻产量空间变化。1987年与1977年相比，浙江省有87％的县市增产；而1997年与1987年相比，有76％的县市减产，而且减产幅度大。1977～1987年水稻总产增加以单产为主要驱动力，而1987～1997水稻总产减少以面积为主要驱动力。近十年来水稻总产呈下降趋势，未来浙江省水稻面积将进一步减少，总产也随之减少。浙江省水稻单产和趋势产量呈上升趋势，气象产量的年际变化呈剧烈波动特征，水稻播种面积变化呈抛物线型。在单产的年际变化中，技术水平和社会因素对水稻、 早稻及早中稻、 晚稻及迟中稻的影响不足30％，气象条件的影响70％以上，即在水稻单产的年际变化中，气象因素的影响比技术水平和社会因素都要大。

关键词: 水稻, 产量, 时空变化, 地理信息系统