RCPs情景下福建省水稻生产的适应性调整模拟研究

doi:10.16819/j.1001-7216.2018.7104

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】气候变化对农业生产的影响日趋明显。分析未来气候变化所产生的影响,模拟调整作物耕作和栽培措施,为有效减轻未来气候变化带来的负效应提供参考。【方法】根据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会第5次工作报告中未来可能的温室气体排放情况,以BCC_CSM模式模拟未来的气候变化情景,选取RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种典型浓度路径情景,与作物模型CERES-Rice耦合,筛选出了未来气候变化条件下福建省各稻区可能的最佳品种和播期,并研究分析了品种更替和播期调整后的水稻单产、稳产性以及全省水稻总产的变化。【结果】在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,闽东南双季稻区早稻的模拟产量较未作适应性调整分别增加1.6%和1.9%,晚稻的模拟产量依次增加13.5%和9.8%;闽西北双季稻区早稻的模拟产量依次提高1.4%和1.0%,晚稻的模拟产量依次提高11.5%和7.9%;闽西北山地单季稻区一季稻的模拟产量分别增加14.1%和13.7%。在综合考虑两种适应性措施后,福建省各稻区总产也较当前明显提高,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种情景下,分别提高9.3%和10.5%。【结论】未来气候变化对福建省水稻产量有不利影响,可采取一定的适应性措施缓解负效应。

关键词: 气候变化, RCPs情景, 水稻, 适应性措施, 作物模型

Abstract:

【Objective】The impact of climate change on agricultural production has become increasingly obvious, and someadaptive adjustments on cropcultivation cansignificantly reduce the negative effects of future climate change.【Method】Based on the coupling of the BCC_CSM climate model and the crop model CERES-Rice, we selected the most adaptive rice varieties and the best sowing dates for each rice growing region in Fujian Province, China under the two scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5(named after a possible range of radiative forcing values in2100 relative to pre-industrial values+4.5,and +8.5 W/m², respectively), and then we assessed their changes in riceyield, yield stability and the overall output of rice.【Result】The simulated yields of early rice with adaptive adjustments in the double cropping rice region in southeastern Fujian under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios increase by 1.6% and 1.9%,respectively compared with those without adaptive adjustments; and forlate rice, by 13.5% and 9.8%, respectively.In doublecropping rice region in northwestern Fujian, the simulated yields of early rice with adaptive adjustments increased by 1.4% and 1.0% under the two climate change scenarios compared with those without adaptive adjustments; and for the late rice, by 11.5% and 7.9%. The simulated yields of single rice with adaptive adjustments increased by 14.1% and 13.7% underthe twoclimate change scenarios comparedwith thosewithout adaptive adjustments.With adaptive adjustments, the overall output of ricein Fujianunder the two climatechange scenarios increased by 9.3% and 10.5%. 【Conclusion】Climate change had adverse effects on rice yield in Fujian, and some adaptive adjustments could be taken to alleviate the negative impact.

Key words: climate change, RCPs scenarios, rice, adaptability measure, crop model

中图分类号:

S181
S511.01

周桐宇, 江敏, 孙汪亮, 孙彬. RCPs情景下福建省水稻生产的适应性调整模拟研究[J]. 中国水稻科学, 2018, 32(3): 265-276.

Tongyu ZHOU, Min JIANG, Wangliang SUN, Bin SUN. Simulation of Rice Adaptability Adjustmentin Fujian Province Under RCPs Scenarios[J]. Chinese Journal OF Rice Science, 2018, 32(3): 265-276.

图/表 10

图1 福建省水稻种植分区

Fig.1. Distribution ofrice growing regions in Fujian Province, China.

表1 福建省代表性水稻品种遗传参数

Table 1 Genetic parameters of representative rice combinations in Fujian Province, China.

水稻品种Rice combination	类型Type	P₁	P₂R	P₅	P₂O	G₁	G₂	G₃	G₄
红优2155Hongyou 2155	迟熟早籼EILM	601.2	54.7	135.3	12.4	88.6	0.034	0.48	1.13
花2优3301 Hua 2 you 3301	早熟中籼MIEM	703.0	90.0	370.3	11.5	88.0	0.016	1.15	1.10
两优667Liangyou 667	中熟中籼MIMM	620.5	132.0	660.2	11.7	72.0	0.019	0.47	0.65
广优2186 Guangyou 2186	迟熟中籼MILM	716.0	75.4	515.0	11.3	99.0	0.016	1.64	1.10
深优9775 Shenyou 9775	早熟晚籼LIEM	505.0	204.0	124.0	11.0	59.0	0.016	0.53	1.14
泰丰优656 Taifengyou 656	中熟晚籼LIMM	696.0	130.0	439.0	11.0	77.0	0.016	0.06	0.67
泰丰优2098 Taifengyou 2098	迟熟晚籼LILM	811.0	204.0	214.0	11.1	47.0	0.017	1.01	1.04

图2 CERES-Rice模型在福建省主要稻区的验证结果**表示在0.01水平上显著相关。

Fig. 2. Verification results of CERES-Rice model in the main ricegrowing regions in Fujian Province, China. **, Significant correlation at 0.01 level.

表2 基于两种气候变化情景下福建省各稻区不同品种类型的模拟产量及稳产性指标

Table 2 Simulated yieldsand stability index(ΔSD%) for variousvarietal types under the tworepresentative concentration pathway(RCP) scenarios in different rice growing regions of Fujian Province.

稻区 Rice region	品种类型 Varietal type	RCP4.5		RCP8.5
稻区 Rice region	品种类型 Varietal type	模拟产量 Simulated yield /(kg∙hm^-2)	稳产性指标ΔSD%	模拟产量 Simulated yield /(kg∙hm^-2)	稳产性指标ΔSD%
闽东南双季稻区 Double-cropping rice region in southeastern Fujian	早熟晚籼 LIEM	4495.8	8.6	4842.7	11.3
	中熟晚籼 LIMM	5533.8	9.7	5983.0	18.4
	晚熟晚籼 LILM	6045.1	4.3	6133.4	5.7
闽西北双季稻区 Double-cropping rice region in northwestern Fujian	早熟晚籼 LIEM	4948.1	9.5	5277.2	9.0
	中熟晚籼 LIMM	5843.6	12.2	6235.2	18.3
	晚熟晚籼 LILM	6268.4	3.2	6336.8	4.1
闽西北山地单季稻区 Single-cropping rice region In hilly area of northwestern Fujian	早熟中籼 MIEM	9305.2	1.7	9465.4	2.4
	中熟中籼 MIMM	7429.8	11.4	7698.0	14.6
	晚熟中籼 MILM	10079.3	2.0	10205.9	2.6

图3 基于两种气候变化情景下福建省早稻和单季稻区各样点最佳播期的可能改变 A–RCP4.5情景; B–RCP8.5情景;–10d, –5d, 0d, +5d和+10d分别指播期提前10d、提前5d、与当前相同、推迟5d和推迟10d。图4中的缩写与图3相同。

Fig. 3. Changes in proper sowing dates of early rice and single-cropping rice under the two representative concentration pathway(RCP) scenarios in Fujian Province, China. A, RCP4.5 scenario; B, RCP8.5 scenario; –10d,–5d, 0d, +5d and +10d represent 10 days advanced, 5 days advanced, the same with the baseline, 5 days delayed and 10 days delayed, respectively. The same as those in Fig. 4.

图4 基于两种气候变化情景下福建省晚稻和单季稻区各样点最佳播期的可能改变

Fig. 4. Changes in proper sowing dates of late rice and single-cropping rice under the two representative concentration pathway(RCP) scenarios in Fujian Province, China.

图5 两种气候变化情景下福建省不同稻区在适应性调整后水稻模拟产量相对于基准时段的变化稻区Ⅰ–闽东南双季稻区; 稻区Ⅱ–闽西北双季稻区; 稻区Ⅲ–闽西北山地单季稻区; ER–早稻; LR–晚稻; SR–单季稻; NCE–不考虑CO2肥效作用时气候变化的影响;CE–考虑CO2肥效作用时气候变化的影响;CE+C–考虑CO2肥效作用时气候变化影响+优化品种;CE+C+SD–考虑CO2肥效作用时气候变化影响+优化品种+播期调整。

Fig. 5. Change in rice yields under the tworepresentative concentration pathway(RCP) scenarioswithadaptive adjustments compared with the base yields in different rice growing regions in Fujian Province, China. RegionⅠ, Double-cropping rice region in Southeastern Fujian;RegionⅡ, Double-cropping rice region in Northwestern Fujian; Region Ⅲ, Single-cropping rice region in mountain area of Northwestern Fujian; ER, Early rice; LR, Late rice; SR, Single-cropping rice;NCE, Without taking into consideration CO2 fertilization effect; CE, Taking into consideration CO2 fertilization effect; CE+C, Combined effects of CE and optimized in cultivar; CE+C+SD, Combined effects of CE+C and adjustments in sowing date

图6 两种排放情景下福建省各稻区水稻在考虑适应调整前后的产量相较基准时段产量的变化 A和B–早稻和单季稻种植区;C和D–晚稻和单季稻种植区;其中A和C是RCP4.5情景,B、D是RCP8.5情景。

Fig. 6. Change in rice yields underthe two representative concentration pathway(RCP) scenarioswith adaptive adjustments compared with the base yieldsin different rice growing regions in Fujian Province, China. A and B, Early rice and single-cropping rice region; C and D, Late rice and single-cropping rice region; A and C, RCP4.5 scenario; B and D, RCP8.5 scenario.

表3 未来两种气候变化情景下福建省适应性调整后的水稻生产方式及管理措施

Table 3 Rice production patterns and managements with adaptive adjustments under the two representative concentration pathway(RCP) scenarios in different rice growing regions of Fujian Province, China.

稻区 Rice region growing	样点 Site	RCP4.5
稻区 Rice region growing	样点 Site	品种搭配 Variety collocation	播种日期 Sowing date	品种搭配 Variety collocation	播种日期 Sowing date
闽东南双季稻区 Double-cropping rice region in southeastern Fujian	闽清、永泰 Minqing,Yongtai	晚熟早籼+中熟晚籼 EILM+LIMM	提前10d+提前10d 10 days advanced +10 days advanced	晚熟早籼+中熟晚籼 EILM+LIMM	提前10d+提前10d 10 days advanced +10 days advanced
闽东南双季稻区 Double-cropping rice region in southeastern Fujian	其余样点 The rest sites	晚熟早籼+晚熟晚籼 EILM+LILM	提前10d+推迟10d 10 days advanced +10 days delayed	晚熟早籼+晚熟晚籼 EILM+LILM	提前10d+推迟10d 10 days advanced +10 days delayed
闽西北双季稻区 Double-cropping rice region in northwestern Fujian	福鼎 Fuding	晚熟早籼+中熟晚籼 EILM+LIMM	提前10d+提前10d 10 days advanced +10 days advanced	晚熟早籼+中熟晚籼 EILM+LIMM	提前10d+提前10d 10 days advanced +10 days advanced
闽西北双季稻区 Double-cropping rice region in northwestern Fujian	其余样点 The rest sites	晚熟早籼+晚熟晚籼 EILM+LILM	提前10d+推迟10d 10 days advanced +10 days delayed	晚熟早籼+晚熟晚籼 EILM+LILM	提前10d+推迟10d 10 days advanced +10 days delayed
闽西北山地单季稻区 SCR	所有样点 All sites	晚熟中籼 MILM	提前10d 10 days advanced	晚熟中籼 MILM	提前10d 10 days advanced

表4 两种气候变化情景下考虑与不考虑适应性调整各稻区水稻模拟总产对全省水稻总产的贡献

Table 4 Contribution of overall rice output of rice growing regions toFujian Province with adaptive adjustment and without adaptive adjustment under the tworepresentative concentration pathway(RCP) scenarios.

稻区 Rice region	稻作类型 Rice pattern	RCP4.5			RCP8.5
稻区 Rice region	稻作类型 Rice pattern	不考虑适应性调整 Without adaptive adjustment	考虑适应性调整 With adaptive adjustment		不考虑适应性调整 Without adaptive adjustment		考虑适应性调整 With adaptive adjustment
对总产量变化的贡献率 Contribution to change in overall rice output / %
闽东南双季稻区 Double-cropping rice region in southeastern Fujian	早稻Early rice	0.31	0.50	0.45		0.67
闽东南双季稻区 Double-cropping rice region in southeastern Fujian	后季稻Late rice	0.20	1.53	0.75		1.73
闽西北双季稻区 Double-cropping rice region in northwestern Fujian	早稻Early rice	0.05	0.18	0.23		0.33
闽西北双季稻区 Double-cropping rice region in northwestern Fujian	后季稻Late rice	0.25	2.04	0.98		2.21
闽西北山地单季稻区 Single-cropping rice region in hilly area of northwestern Fujian	单季稻Single rice	–0.16	5.00	0.63		5.60
总产量变化Change in overall rice output / %		0.66	9.25	3.05		10.54

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