影响中国水稻生产环节外包发展因素的实证研究：基于群体效应视角

doi:10.16819/j.1001-7216.2024.231007

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】基于群体效应视角探索影响水稻生产环节外包发展的因素，为研究中国水稻生产环节外包和农业适度规模经营的路径选择与发展提供参考。【方法】基于2019年全国范围内4个水稻主产省中受访的631位农户与92个村庄的截面数据，采用二元Logistic模型对影响水稻生产环节外包的因素进行实证分析。【结果】1）个体效应对农业生产环节外包影响削弱，群体效应作用显现。2）群体通过邻里效应、学习效应和环境效应等对水稻生产环节外包发展产生了重要作用：a.邻里经营规模扩大有利于促进劳动密集型环节发展；邻里收入水平的提高对劳动密集型环节外包的发展无明显促进作用；b.学习效应对技术密集型环节和兼具劳动密集型与技术密集型特征的环节外包发展具有积极的辐射带动作用；c.环境效应中组织化环境为兼具劳动密集型与技术密集型特征的环节和技术密集型环节进一步发展提供了空间，农资供应环境对劳动密集型环节外包发展起着积极的促进作用。【启示】提高村庄群体的影响力；充分发挥邻里的示范带头作用；加强对农业劳动力的职业技能培训与指导；强化村庄组织环境，建立专业化、社会化的农业合作组织。

关键词: 水稻生产环节外包, 群体效应, 个体效应, 适度规模经营

Abstract:

【Objective】 This paper explores the factors influencing the development of rice production outsourcing from a population perspective, aiming to provide insights for the selection of pathways and the advancement of moderate-scale management in rice production outsourcing and agriculture in China.【Method】 Using cross-sectional data gathered from 631 farmers and 92 villages surveyed across four major rice-producing provinces nationwide in 2019, a binary logistic model was employed to empirically analyze the factors impacting rice production outsourcing.【Result】 1) The individual effect on agricultural outsourcing was found to diminish, while the group effect emerged. 2) Groups played a pivotal role in fostering rice production outsourcing through neighborhood, learning, and environmental effects:a. The expansion of neighborhood management scale facilitated the development of labor-intensive links. b. The income level within neighborhoods exhibited no significant promotion effect on the outsourcing of labor-intensive links. c. The learning effect positively influenced the development of both technology-intensive and labor-intensive sectors. d. The organizational environment provided space for the further advancement of labor-intensive and technology-intensive sectors. e. The supply environment of agricultural materials positively contributed to the development of labor-intensive outsourcing.【Revelation】 Enhancing the influence of village groups, leveraging the leading role of the neighborhood model, providing robust vocational skills training and guidance for the agricultural labor force, strengthening the organizational environment of villages, and establishing specialized and socialized agricultural cooperative organizations are recommended strategies.

Key words: outsourcing of rice production links, group effect, individual effect, moderate scale operation

关雅琪, 鄂志国, 王磊, 申红芳. 影响中国水稻生产环节外包发展因素的实证研究：基于群体效应视角[J]. 中国水稻科学, 2024, 38(3): 324-334.

GUAN Yaqi, E Zhiguo, WANG Lei, SHEN Hongfang. An Empirical Study on The Factors Influencing the Development of Rice Production Outsourcing in China: From the Perspective of Population Effect[J]. Chinese Journal OF Rice Science, 2024, 38(3): 324-334.

图/表 5

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变量类型 Variable type		变量名称 Variable	定义和赋值 Definition and assignment	平均值	标准差	最小值 Minimum value	最大值
变量类型 Variable type		变量名称 Variable	定义和赋值 Definition and assignment	Average value	Standard deviation	最小值 Minimum value	Maximum value
村庄自然禀赋		村到县城距离	连续变量，单位：千米	17.248	9.830	1.000	48.000
		村庄的地形特征	山区=1，丘陵=2，平原=3	2.302	0.632	1.000	3.000
		村庄人均耕地面积	连续变量；单位：亩/人	1.351	0.609	0.250	3.050
个体效应	农户个体特征	农户年龄	连续变量；单位：岁	56.335	9.425	28.000	80.000
		农户从事水稻种植业的时间	连续变量；单位：年	29.847	15.039	1.000	65.000
		农户文化程度	小学及以下=1，初中 =2，高中及中专=3，大专及以上=4	1.759	0.774	1.000	4.000
		农户家庭收入水平	低收入组=1，中低收入组=2，中等收入组=3，中高收入组=4，高收入组=5	2.997	1.285	1.000	5.000
		农户有无农业机械	是=1，否=0	0.721	0.449	0.000	1.000
	劳动力要素	家庭劳动力数量	连续变量；单位：人	4.786	1.802	1.000	12.000
	劳动力要素	务农方式	纯农户=0，兼业农户=1	0.681	0.466	0.000	1.000
	土地要素	种稻规模	连续变量；单位：亩	115.300	289.261	0.200	3500.000
	土地要素	土地细碎化程度	田块数/种稻面积；单位：块/亩	0.569	0.624	0.002	5.000

变量类型 Variable type		变量名称 Variable	定义和赋值 Definition and assignment	平均值	标准差	最小值 Minimum value	最大值
变量类型 Variable type		变量名称 Variable	定义和赋值 Definition and assignment	Average value	Standard deviation	最小值 Minimum value	Maximum value
村庄自然禀赋		村到县城距离	连续变量，单位：千米	17.248	9.830	1.000	48.000
		村庄的地形特征	山区=1，丘陵=2，平原=3	2.302	0.632	1.000	3.000
		村庄人均耕地面积	连续变量；单位：亩/人	1.351	0.609	0.250	3.050
个体效应	农户个体特征	农户年龄	连续变量；单位：岁	56.335	9.425	28.000	80.000
		农户从事水稻种植业的时间	连续变量；单位：年	29.847	15.039	1.000	65.000
		农户文化程度	小学及以下=1，初中 =2，高中及中专=3，大专及以上=4	1.759	0.774	1.000	4.000
		农户家庭收入水平	低收入组=1，中低收入组=2，中等收入组=3，中高收入组=4，高收入组=5	2.997	1.285	1.000	5.000
		农户有无农业机械	是=1，否=0	0.721	0.449	0.000	1.000
	劳动力要素	家庭劳动力数量	连续变量；单位：人	4.786	1.802	1.000	12.000
	劳动力要素	务农方式	纯农户=0，兼业农户=1	0.681	0.466	0.000	1.000
	土地要素	种稻规模	连续变量；单位：亩	115.300	289.261	0.200	3500.000
	土地要素	土地细碎化程度	田块数/种稻面积；单位：块/亩	0.569	0.624	0.002	5.000

变量名称 Variable		定义和赋值 Definition and assignment	平均值 Average value	标准差 Standard deviation	最小值 Minimum value	最大值 Maximum value
邻里效应	村庄农地流转比率	连续变量；单位：%	46.335	23.266	10.000	100.000
	村庄上年农民人均纯收入	连续变量；单位：元	11058.713	6838.928	1000.000	46000.000
	村庄耕地面积	连续变量；单位：亩	4310.564	3870.926	300.000	17100.000
	村庄水稻面积占耕地面积比例	连续变量；单位：%	84.037	15.421	12.484	100.000
	村庄农户数	连续变量；单位：户	783.334	396.393	143.000	1710.000
	水稻种植农户数占村庄农户数比例	连续变量；单位：%	56.637	25.791	1.795	100.000
	村庄外出务工的劳动力比例	连续变量；单位：%	44.684	12.551	15.000	80.000
	非农业劳动力平均日工资	连续变量，单位：元/(人·天)	125.461	21.734	90.000	200.000
学习效应	有无农技员提供技术指导	是=1，否=0	0.564	0.496	0.000	1.000
	对农技员技术指导满意程度	不满意=1，一般=2，满意=3	2.773	0.520	1.000	3.000
	获取农业生产信息的难易程度	较难=1，一般=2，容易=3	2.656	0.580	1.000	3.000
环境效应	村庄农资供应站个数	连续变量；单位：个	1.174	1.407	0.000	10.000
环境效应	村庄是否有专门的农业合作	是=1，否=0	0.710	0.454	0.000	1.000

变量名称 Variable		定义和赋值 Definition and assignment	平均值 Average value	标准差 Standard deviation	最小值 Minimum value	最大值 Maximum value
邻里效应	村庄农地流转比率	连续变量；单位：%	46.335	23.266	10.000	100.000
	村庄上年农民人均纯收入	连续变量；单位：元	11058.713	6838.928	1000.000	46000.000
	村庄耕地面积	连续变量；单位：亩	4310.564	3870.926	300.000	17100.000
	村庄水稻面积占耕地面积比例	连续变量；单位：%	84.037	15.421	12.484	100.000
	村庄农户数	连续变量；单位：户	783.334	396.393	143.000	1710.000
	水稻种植农户数占村庄农户数比例	连续变量；单位：%	56.637	25.791	1.795	100.000
	村庄外出务工的劳动力比例	连续变量；单位：%	44.684	12.551	15.000	80.000
	非农业劳动力平均日工资	连续变量，单位：元/(人·天)	125.461	21.734	90.000	200.000
学习效应	有无农技员提供技术指导	是=1，否=0	0.564	0.496	0.000	1.000
	对农技员技术指导满意程度	不满意=1，一般=2，满意=3	2.773	0.520	1.000	3.000
	获取农业生产信息的难易程度	较难=1，一般=2，容易=3	2.656	0.580	1.000	3.000
环境效应	村庄农资供应站个数	连续变量；单位：个	1.174	1.407	0.000	10.000
环境效应	村庄是否有专门的农业合作	是=1，否=0	0.710	0.454	0.000	1.000

变量名称 Variable		劳动密集型环节 Model 1-1	兼具劳动密集型与技术密集型特征的环节	技术密集型环节 Model 1-3
变量名称 Variable		劳动密集型环节 Model 1-1	Model 1-2	技术密集型环节 Model 1-3
村庄自然禀赋	村到县城的距离	−0.023^*	0.042^***	0.035^**
	村到县城的距离	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.015)
	村庄地形特征(以“山区为对照”)
	平原=1，其他=0	0.738	−0.089	0.354
	平原=1，其他=0	(0.460)	(0.475)	(0.596)
	丘陵=1，其他=0	0.101	−0.524	−0.358
	丘陵=1，其他=0	(0.419)	(0.457)	(0.585)
	村庄人均耕地面积	0.001	0.004	−0.709^**
	村庄人均耕地面积	(0.221)	(0.220)	(0.280)
个体效应农户个体特征劳动力要素土地要素	农户年龄	0.010	0.030	0.025
	农户年龄	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.022)
	农户文化程度	0.437^**	−0.244	0.133
	农户文化程度	(0.182)	(0.168)	(0.193)
	农户从业时间	−0.009	−0.034^***	−0.005
	农户从业时间	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.013)
	农户家庭收入水平	−0.172	0.269^**	0.220
	农户家庭收入水平	(0.110)	(0.112)	(0.137)
	有无农业机械	−1.480^***	−0.323	−0.524
	有无农业机械	(0.354)	(0.318)	(0.399)
	农户是否兼业(以“纯农户为对照”)
	兼业农户	0.501^*	−0.207	−0.468
	兼业农户	(0.277)	(0.283)	(0.334)
	种稻规模	0.028	0.614^***	1.025^***
	种稻规模	(0.103)	(0.112)	(0.147)
	土地细碎化程度	−0.156	0.328	−0.183
	土地细碎化程度	(0.231)	(0.249)	(0.392)
−2Log likelihood		456.051	445.836	329.690
Nagelkerke R²		0.132	0.373	0.506