Characteristics of Spatiotemporal Evolution of Thermal Resources in Ratoon Rice at Heading and Grain-filling Stages in Sichuan Basin in 1981−2022

doi:10.16819/j.1001-7216.2025.240614

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】 This study investigates the dynamic changes of thermal resources during the heading and grain-filling stages of ratoon rice in the Sichuan Basin under climate change, aiming to provide a scientific reference for ensuring the safe production of ratoon rice in the region. 【Method】 Using daily mean temperature data from meteorological stations and observational data on the maturity stage of main-crop rice from agrometeorological stations within the ratoon rice planting area of the Sichuan Basin from 1981 to 2022, we analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of thermal resources, the safe full-heading date (SFHD), and the grain-filling termination date (GFTD). 【Result】 The results show that both the SFHD and GFTD of ratoon rice exhibited a significant delaying trend from 1981 to 2022, with climate tendency rates of 1.58 d·(10a)⁻¹ and 2.0 d·(10a)⁻¹, respectively. The dates with 80% climatic guarantee probability ranged from September 10-17 for SFHD and October 15-28 for GFTD. The spatial distributions of SFHD and GFTD were similar, showing a progressive delay from the northwest to the southeast of the basin. Thermal resources during the heading and grain-filling stages showed a significant increasing trend, with growing degree days (GDD) generally ranging between 100 and 300 ℃·d and a climate tendency rate of 9.72 ℃·d·(10a)⁻¹. Spatially, GDD increased from the northwest to the southeast of the basin. From the 2010s onward, the area with GDD above 200 ℃·d expanded significantly toward the northwest, increasing by more than 10,000 km² compared to that in the 1980s. Since the 2000s, the interdecadal durations of both SFHD and GFTD have lengthened overall, while fluctuations in thermal resources during these stages have intensified. 【Conclusion】 Under climate change, the heading and grain-filling stages of ratoon rice in the Sichuan Basin are characterized by more abundant thermal resources, which is conducive to expanding the cultivation area and promoting diversified planting patterns. However, the increasing impact of extreme high- and low-temperature events on the stability of thermal resources has become an unfavorable climatic factor for ratoon rice production.

Key words: ratoon rice, heading and grain-filling, thermal resources, Sichuan Basin

摘要：

【目的】探究气候变化背景下四川盆地再生稻抽穗灌浆期热量资源的动态变化，为保障区域再生稻安全生产提供科学参考。【方法】采用四川盆地再生稻区1981—2022年气象站日平均气温和农业气象站中稻成熟期观测数据，分析区域再生稻抽穗灌浆期热量资源、安全齐穗期及灌浆终止期的时空演变特征。【结果】1981—2022年，四川盆地再生稻安全齐穗期、灌浆终止期均呈显著推迟趋势，气候倾向率分别为1.58 d·(10a)^-1、2.0 d·(10a)^-1，区域80%气候保证率日期分别为9月10日−17日、10月15日−28日。安全齐穗期和灌浆终止期的空间分布格局相似，总体自盆地西北方向东南方推迟。区域抽穗灌浆期热量资源增加趋势显著，平均生长度日普遍为100~300℃·d，气候倾向率达9.72℃·d·(10a)^-1，呈自盆地西北方向东南方增加的空间分布特征。2010年代至近期，抽穗灌浆期生长度日在200℃·d以上的区域向盆地西北方大幅扩大，面积较1980年代增长超过1万km²。自21世纪以来，全域年代际安全齐穗期和灌浆终止期的整体时间拉长，抽穗灌浆期热量资源波动加剧。【结论】气候变化背景下四川盆地再生稻抽穗灌浆期具备更丰富的热量资源，有利于再生稻蓄留面积的扩大和种植模式的多元化发展，但极端高温、低温天气对热量资源稳定性的影响增大，是再生稻生产的不利气候因素。

关键词: 再生稻, 抽穗灌浆, 热量资源, 四川盆地

LUO Zizi, ZHANG Dejun, CHEN Dongdong, BI Miao, ZHU Yuhan, HAN Xu, WU Qiang, LI Yuechen. Characteristics of Spatiotemporal Evolution of Thermal Resources in Ratoon Rice at Heading and Grain-filling Stages in Sichuan Basin in 1981−2022[J]. Chinese Journal OF Rice Science, 2025, 39(6): 873-886.

罗孳孳, 张德军, 陈东东, 毕淼, 朱玉涵, 韩旭, 武强, 李月臣. 1981−2022年四川盆地再生稻抽穗灌浆期热量资源时空演变特征[J]. 中国水稻科学, 2025, 39(6): 873-886.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1. Altitude and distribution of meteorological stations in the investigation region

Fig. 2. Subdivision of planting area of ratoon rice in Sichuan Basin

Fig. 3. Spatial distribution of safe full heading dates and safe grain-filling dates of ratoon rice with 80% climate guarantee rate

Fig. 4. Spatial distribution of mean GDD at heading and grain-filling stages of ratoon rice

Fig. 5. Interannual variability of safe full heading dates, safe grain-filling dates, GDD at heading and grain-filling stages, and spatial distribution of their climatic propensities The dots in panel 5 A-C represent the values of safe full heading dates, safe grain-filling dates, or GDD at heading and grain-filling stages for 66 stations of ratoon rice from 1981 to 2022. The blue line represent is the trend line of interannual the interannual variation.

Fig. 6. Interdecadal variability of safe full heading dates, safe grain-filling dates, GDD at heading and grain-filling stages The black dots represent the values of safe full heading dates, safe grain-filling dates, or GDD at heading to grain-filling stage for 66 stations of ratoon rice in each year during the time interval. The values are arranged in ascending order from bottom left to top right. The red horizontal line represents the median value of the values during the time interval. n is the number of samples.

Fig. 7. Spatial distribution of safe heading dates of ratoon rice during P1-P4 time interval

Fig. 8. Spatial distribution of safe grain-filling dates of ratoon rice during P1-P4 time interval

Fig. 9. Spatial distribution of mean GDD at heading and grain-filling stages of ratoon rice during P1-P4 time interval

Table 1. GDD values and area of different thermal levels in the study area during P1-P4 interval

时段 Time interval	GDD(℃·d)			面积Area(×10⁴km²)
时段 Time interval	平均值 Average value	最大值 Maximum value	最小值 Minimum value	R1	R2	R3	R4
P1	185.4	302.4	70.8	1.62	3.16	2.60	0.55
P2	173.8	282.8	62.4	2.08	3.46	2.20	0.07
P3	213.9	340.2	87.7	0.72	2.42	2.90	2.01
P4	203.1	317.6	82.8	0.85	2.89	3.00	1.31

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