Chinese Journal OF Rice Science >
Simulation of Rice Adaptability Adjustmentin Fujian Province Under RCPs Scenarios
Received date: 2017-08-29
Revised date: 2017-11-09
Online published: 2018-05-10
【Objective】The impact of climate change on agricultural production has become increasingly obvious, and someadaptive adjustments on cropcultivation cansignificantly reduce the negative effects of future climate change.【Method】Based on the coupling of the BCC_CSM climate model and the crop model CERES-Rice, we selected the most adaptive rice varieties and the best sowing dates for each rice growing region in Fujian Province, China under the two scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5(named after a possible range of radiative forcing values in2100 relative to pre-industrial values+4.5,and +8.5 W/m2, respectively), and then we assessed their changes in riceyield, yield stability and the overall output of rice.【Result】The simulated yields of early rice with adaptive adjustments in the double cropping rice region in southeastern Fujian under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios increase by 1.6% and 1.9%,respectively compared with those without adaptive adjustments; and forlate rice, by 13.5% and 9.8%, respectively.In doublecropping rice region in northwestern Fujian, the simulated yields of early rice with adaptive adjustments increased by 1.4% and 1.0% under the two climate change scenarios compared with those without adaptive adjustments; and for the late rice, by 11.5% and 7.9%. The simulated yields of single rice with adaptive adjustments increased by 14.1% and 13.7% underthe twoclimate change scenarios comparedwith thosewithout adaptive adjustments.With adaptive adjustments, the overall output of ricein Fujianunder the two climatechange scenarios increased by 9.3% and 10.5%. 【Conclusion】Climate change had adverse effects on rice yield in Fujian, and some adaptive adjustments could be taken to alleviate the negative impact.
Key words： climate change; RCPs scenarios; rice; adaptability measure; crop model
Tongyu ZHOU, Min JIANG, Wangliang SUN, Bin SUN . Simulation of Rice Adaptability Adjustmentin Fujian Province Under RCPs Scenarios[J]. Chinese Journal OF Rice Science, 2018 , 32(3) : 265 -276 . DOI: 10.16819/j.1001-7216.2018.7104
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