Risk Assessment and Dynamic Early Warming of Heat Damage in Rice Based on Simulation Model

doi:10.16819/j.1001-7216.2025.240306

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】 This study aims to enhance the level of disaster damage assessment and improve the ability to prevent and mitigate disasters in rice production by developing a high-temperature early warning system and a disaster risk assessment system.【Method】Four representative rice varieties from Fujian Province were selected to conduct high-temperature control experiments during the key developmental stages when rice is susceptible to high temperatures and heat injury. The variations in rice yield and its components under different high-temperature stress treatments were measured. By combining these results with a rice development period model, the damage rate due to high temperatures was calculated, leading to the construction of a risk assessment and early warning system for high-temperature stress in rice. Utilizing meteorological data from Fujian Province over the past 50 years, this system was employed to calculate the heat injury rate of rice under high temperatures, and the risk levels of heat injury during the critical developmental stages of rice in each rice-growing region were assessed. Daily meteorological data were then used to simulate both single-point and regional dynamic early warnings of heat injury in rice, and the actual disaster losses were calculated using regional test data and meteorological yield data from planting samples. The purpose is to verify the simulated warning results. 【Results】The risk assessment results for high-temperature damage to rice in Fujian Province indicate that early rice in the double-cropping rice area of Southeastern Fujian is generally at low risk, with heat damage primarily occurring during the flowering stage of early rice. The frequency of heat damage over the past 50 years is less than 30%. In contrast, early rice in the double-cropping rice area of northwestern Fujian is predominantly at high and sub-high risk, with heat damage frequencies ranging from 68% to 80% during the flowering stage and 62% to 80% during the filling stage. The distribution of heat damage and low-risk areas in the single-season rice-growing regions of the mountainous areas in northwestern Fujian is the widest, with frequencies of less than 38% during the meiosis stage and less than 26% during the flowering stage. In 2020, 12 representative rice varieties underwent single-point dynamic warning simulations for high-temperature stress in Fujian Province. The results indicated a relatively high probability of severe heat injury to early rice in the double-cropping rice area of Southeastern Fujian, with damage rates from 51.1% to 55.4%. In the double-cropping rice area of northwestern Fujian, early rice suffered mild to moderate heat injury, with damage rates ranging from 12.1% to 26.8%. The probability of moderate heat injury to middle rice in the mountainous single-cropping rice region of northwestern Fujian is also relatively high, with damage rates from 18.2% to 29.4%. The simulation results of regional early warnings in Fujian Province in 2020 showed that in the two rice-growing areas of early rice T78 You 2155, the regions with severe heat injury were mainly concentrated in southeastern Fujian, including Anxi, Nanan, Tongan, and Longhai counties, with disaster damage rates from 30.8% to 41.6%. Only Jiangle County in northwestern Fujian was severely hit by heat damage, with a disaster damage rate of 31.0%. In the mountainous single-cropping rice area of northwestern Fujian, where the middle rice II You 3301 is planted, Guangze, Zhenghe, Mingxi, and Yongan counties experienced moderate heat injury, with disaster damage rates of 15.1% to 21.7%.【Conclusion】The risk of heat injury to early rice in the northwestern Fujian rice planting area is more severe than that in the southeastern Fujian region. A

comparison of the simulated disaster damage rates from the system with the actual disaster damage rates of local rice production and the trends in meteorological yield changes indicates that the warning effect is effective. Regardless of spatial and temporal variations, the simulation results align well with the actual situation.

Key words: rice, simulation model, damage assessment, risk zoning, early warning for high temperature

摘要：

【目的】通过构建水稻高温热害预警系统与灾害风险评估体系，提高水稻高温热害灾损评估水平和防灾减灾能力。【方法】挑选福建省4个代表性水稻品种，在当地水稻易受高温热害的四个关键发育期进行高温控制试验，测定不同高温胁迫处理下水稻产量及其构成因素的变化。结合水稻发育期模型计算高温热害灾损率，进而构建水稻高温热害风险评估和预警系统。结合福建省近50年的气象资料，利用研发的系统计算水稻高温热害灾损率，划分出各稻区水稻关键发育期的热害风险等级。利用逐日气象数据进行水稻高温热害的单点和区域动态预警模拟，并利用种植样点的区域试验资料和气象产量计算出实际灾损，对模拟预警结果进行验证。【结果】福建省水稻高温热害风险评估结果显示，闽东南双季稻区的早稻以低风险为主，并且主要出现在早稻开花期，近50年热害发生频率小于30%；闽西北双季稻区的早稻以高风险和次高风险为主，其中开花期热害发生频率为68%~80%，灌浆期为62%~80%。闽西北山地单季稻区中稻发生高温热害低风险区分布最广，其中减数分裂期热害的发生频率小于38%，开花期小于26%。2020年12个代表性品种在福建省水稻高温热害单点动态预警系统中模拟，结果显示，闽东南双季稻区早稻发生重度高温热害的概率较高，灾损率为51.1%~55.4%；闽西北双季稻区早稻则遭遇轻度和中度高温热害，灾损率为12.1%~26.8%；闽西北山地单季稻区中稻发生中度热害概率较高，灾损率为18.2%~29.4%。2020年福建省区域预警模拟结果显示，种植早稻“T78优2155”的两个稻区内，重度热害地区主要集中在安溪、南安、同安、龙海等闽东南县区，灾损率为30.8%~41.6%，闽西北仅有将乐地区为重度热害，灾损率为31.0%；种植中稻“II优3301”的闽西北山地单季稻区内，光泽、政和、明溪、永安等地遭遇中度热害，灾损率为15.1%~21.7%。【结论】闽西北水稻种植区的早稻遭遇热害的风险均较闽东南地区更为严重。无论在空间还是时间变化上，系统模拟的灾损率与当地实际水稻生产的灾损率以及气象产量变化相契合，预警效果较好。

关键词: 水稻, 模拟模型, 灾损评估, 风险区划, 高温预警

JIANG Min, WANG Guanglun, LI Minglu, MIAO Bo, LI Mingxuan, SHI Chunlin. Risk Assessment and Dynamic Early Warming of Heat Damage in Rice Based on Simulation Model[J]. Chinese Journal OF Rice Science, 2025, 39(1): 128-142.

江敏, 王广伦, 李明璐, 苗波, 李明煊, 石春林. 基于模型的水稻高温热害风险评估与动态预警[J]. 中国水稻科学, 2025, 39(1): 128-142.

Figures/Tables 12

Fig. 1. Daily temperature variation in artificial climate chambers under different high temperature treatments

Fig. 2. Variation of daily maximum temperature and daily mean temperature in natural emironment

Table 1. Risk levels of heat damage

划分指标 Classification indicator	风险等级Risk level
划分指标 Classification indicator	低 Low	次低 Sub-low	中 Medium	次高 Sub-high	高 High
热害发生频率Frequency of heat damage（%）	<20	21-40	41-60	61-80	>80

Table 2. Parameters of four selected early and middle rice varieties in Fujian Province

参数 Parameter	品种Variety
参数 Parameter	榕盛优1131 Rongshengyou 1131	T78优2155 T78 you 2155	Ⅱ优3301 ⅡYou 3301	禾两优676 Heliangyou 676
P1	57.21	57.21	42.75	42.75
P2	936.48	976.47	1030.03	1069.28
P3	671.05	690.97	868.50	887.89
P4	731.50	708.73	486.60	462.55

Fig. 3. Comparison between simulated and observed values of rice growth period **Significant at 0.01 probability level.

Fig. 4. Comparison between simulated and observed values of rice yield components **Significant at 0.01 probability level.

Fig. 5. Regional distribution of heat damage frequency during the flowering period of early rice in Fujian Province A, Frequency of thermal damage; B, Frequency of mild heat damage; C, Frequency of moderate heat damage; D, Frequency of severe heat damage.

Fig. 6. Regional distribution of heat damage frequency during the filling stage of early rice in Fujian Province A, Frequency of thermal damage; B, Frequency of mild heat damage; C, Frequency of moderate heat damage; D, Frequency of severe heat damage.

Fig. 7. Regional distribution of heat damage frequency during meiosis of mid-season rice in Fujian Province A, Frequency of thermal damage; B, Frequency of mild heat damage; C, Frequency of moderate heat damage; D, Frequency of severe heat damage.

Fig. 8. Regional distribution of heat damage frequency during flowering stage of mid-season rice in Fujian Province A, Frequency of thermal damage; B, Frequency of mild heat damage; C, Frequency of moderate heat damage; D, Frequency of severe heat damage.

Fig. 9. Comparison between simulated and measured values of rice yield loss rate **Significant at 0.01 probability level.

Fig. 10. Loss rate caused by heat damage and meteorological yield of rice in three representative sampling sites in recent 20 years

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