Chinese Journal OF Rice Science >
Demand Elasticity Estimation and Market Potential of Middle and High-end Rice in China: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Market
Received date: 2022-03-29
Revised date: 2022-06-27
Online published: 2023-01-11
【Objective】 With the rising income level of residents and the change of consumption concept, we are facing an increasing demand for the upgrading of staple grain mix. The Yangtze River Delta region, the most developed area and an important grain consumer in China, epitomizes the change of staple grain consumption mix in the future. 【Method】 Here, taking rice as an example, we estimated the demand elasticity of different grades of rice by econometric model using the sales data of large chain supermarkets, and predicted the market consumption potential of high-end rice in the Yangtze River Delta region in the next 20 years. 【Result】 The rice consumption market in the Yangtze River Delta region has become stable, and the consumption mix has gradually changed from ordinary rice to middle and high-end rice. It is expected that the demand for middle and high-end rice will reach 1231×104－2463×104t, and the market value will reach 108.5－230.2 billion Yuan by 2040. 【Conclusion】 Taking into consideration the trend of middle and high-end demand for rice, we should do a good job in top-level design, scientifically figure out the regional layout, development direction and industrial scale on the basis of the existing market and future market, optimize the mixes of product, variety and upgrade operation practices, constantly increase the proportion of high-quality green rice, and intensify the protection of high-end rice industry development.
CHEN Pin, LIU Jiacheng, ZHAO Xiaosong . Demand Elasticity Estimation and Market Potential of Middle and High-end Rice in China: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Market[J]. Chinese Journal OF Rice Science, 2023 , 37(1) : 102 -112 . DOI: 10.16819/j.1001-7216.2023.220312
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