目的 主粮结构升级需求压力随着居民收入水平的提高和消费观念的变化不断增大，长三角地区作为我国经济最发达地区和重要的粮食主销区，研判其主粮消费结构变化有助于判断未来全国大米需求结构的变化趋势。方法 以主粮大米为例，利用大型连锁超市销售数据，采用计量经济模型对不同档次大米需求弹性进行了估计，并预测了长三角地区未来近20年中高端大米的市场消费潜力。 结果 长三角地区大米消费市场已趋稳定，消费结构逐渐由普通大米向中高端大米转变，预计到2040年，长三角地区中高端大米市场需求将达到1231×10⁴~2463×10⁴t，市场价值将达到1085亿~2302亿元。 结论 应针对稻米中高端需求的倾向，做好顶层设计，在已有市场及未来市场发展空间的基础上，科学确定区域布局、发展方向和产业规模，推进优化产品结构、品种结构、经营结构，不断提升优质绿色稻米的比重，加大对高端稻米产业发展的保护。

【Objective】 With the rising income level of residents and the change of consumption concept, we are facing an increasing demand for the upgrading of staple grain mix. The Yangtze River Delta region, the most developed area and an important grain consumer in China, epitomizes the change of staple grain consumption mix in the future. 【Method】 Here, taking rice as an example, we estimated the demand elasticity of different grades of rice by econometric model using the sales data of large chain supermarkets, and predicted the market consumption potential of high-end rice in the Yangtze River Delta region in the next 20 years. 【Result】 The rice consumption market in the Yangtze River Delta region has become stable, and the consumption mix has gradually changed from ordinary rice to middle and high-end rice. It is expected that the demand for middle and high-end rice will reach 1231×10⁴－2463×10⁴t, and the market value will reach 108.5－230.2 billion Yuan by 2040. 【Conclusion】 Taking into consideration the trend of middle and high-end demand for rice, we should do a good job in top-level design, scientifically figure out the regional layout, development direction and industrial scale on the basis of the existing market and future market, optimize the mixes of product, variety and upgrade operation practices, constantly increase the proportion of high-quality green rice, and intensify the protection of high-end rice industry development.