基于适应性调整的豫南地区水稻生产对未来气候变化的响应
收稿日期: 2015-12-22
修回日期: 2016-04-21
网络出版日期: 2016-07-10
基金资助
中国气象局农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室开放研究基金资助项目（AMF201302）；福建省自然科学基金资助项目（2014J01091）。
Response of Rice to Future Climate Change Based on Adaptive Adjustment in Southern Henan Province
Received date: 2015-12-22
Revised date: 2016-04-21
Online published: 2016-07-10
选取河南信阳市9个取样点和单季稻早、中、晚熟3个代表性品种开展气候变化影响的评价研究。根据政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)排放情景特别报告（SRES）中的A2、B2情景并结合区域气候模式（PRECIS），生成信阳市9个取样点基准时段（1961-1990年）和未来时段（2021-2050年）的逐日气象资料。利用ORYZAV3模型，在考虑未来CO2的直接增益效应情况下，模拟分析了未来气候变化对水稻生产的影响。在此基础上，模拟分析了未来不同情景下水稻生产可能的适应性调整方案，最后得出研究区域的水稻生产经过适应性调整后的产量、稳产性以及豫南地区水稻总产的变化。结果显示，未来气候变化中，若不进行适应性调整，在不考虑CO2直接增益效应情况下，信阳地区在A2情景下的模拟产量较基准阶段减产14.1%，B2情景下减产8.6%。通过品种、播期的调整，并同时考虑CO2的肥效作用，A2和B2情景下将分别增产17.2%和15.7%。适应性调整后豫南地区的总产在A2和B2情景下较基准阶段将分别增产14.8%和13.2%。因此，在未来气候变化的评价研究中，将作物生产的适应性调整考虑在内，不仅更为科学合理，也更为乐观。
马锐1,江敏1,2,*,薛昌颖2,孙彬1,周桐宇1 . 基于适应性调整的豫南地区水稻生产对未来气候变化的响应[J]. 中国水稻科学, 2016 , 30(4) : 417 -430 . DOI: 10.16819/j.1001-7216.2016.5189
In this paper, we have chosen nine sample sites in Xinyang City,He′nan Province and conducted evaluation studies on the influence of climate changes based on single cropping rice with three representative varieties, including early middle and late mature. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios(SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, combining with Regional Climate Model(RCM), we have calculated and collected the daily meteorological data during BASE period (1961-1990) and further period (2021-2025) at the nine sample sites. Considering the direct gain effects of CO2 in the future, we have simulated and analyzed the possible impacts of the future climate changes on the rice yields by using ORYZAV3 model. On this basis, the adaptable adjustment schemes of rice yields in the different scenarios in the future are simulated. Rice yields, its stability and changes of total production in the southern Henan region are finally obtained after adaptable adjustments. As the result shows, if the adaptable adjustment or the consideration of the direct gain effects of CO2 in the future climate change is not taken, the simulated rice yields will decrease by 14.1% in A2 scenario and 8.6% in B2 scenario in this region. With the varieties and sowing time adjusted and fertilizer efficiency of CO2 under consideration, the yields will increase by 17.2% in A2 scenario and 15.7% in B2 scenario. Besides, the total production under the two scenarios increases respectively by 148% and 13.2% more than the stage of BASE in this region. So it will be more scientific and optimistic in the assessment research of the future climate change scenarios if we take into account the adaptable adjustment.
Key words： adaptable adjustment; climate change; regional climate mode; rice
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