根据水稻生长发育对气候条件的要求,分析确定了广西种植水稻合理布局的关键气候因子以及气候区划等级指标,即水稻安全生育期天数、安全期活动积温、日平均气温≥10℃的日照时数、年平均气温等4个关键气候因子,作为划分广西水稻种植布局的气候区划指标。采用广西90个气象台站1961-2010年的气候资料以及对应站点的地理基础信息数据,应用GIS技术和逐步回归分析方法建立气候区划指标因子的空间模拟推算模型,即水稻安全生育期天数的模拟推算模型(Y=1193.028-9.831 φ -0.086 h-6.680 λ),安全期活动积温的模拟推算模型(Y=30166.74-262.656 φ -2.848 h -165.549 λ),日平均气温≥10℃的日照时数模拟推算模型(Y=6665.195-110.344 φ -0.416 h -23.416 λ),以及年平均气温的模拟推算模型(Y=73.237-0.735 φ -0.005 h -0.314 λ),并对气候区划指标要素进行细网格推算和残差订正计算,然后依据已确定的水稻各项气候区划等级指标,把广西划分为迟熟双季稻适宜气候区、中迟熟双季稻适宜气候区、早中熟双季稻适宜气候区、单季稻再生稻适宜气候区等四个气候区域,制作广西种植水稻布局的精细化气候区划专题图,并对其区划结果进行分析评述,提出适宜品种的建议。
According to the climatic requirements of rice growth and development, four key climatic factors, including length of safe period for rice cropping, active accumulated temperature during the safe period, sunshine hours during the period when daily mean temperature above 10°C and annual mean temperature, were selected as the indices to classify agroclimatic zones for rice cropping in Guangxi. Climatic data during 1961 to 2010 and related geographical information data of 90 weather stations in Guangxi were used to establish spatial calculating models for the classification indices. The spatial calculating models for the safe period for rice cropping( Y=1193.028-9.831 φ -0.086h-6.680 λ), the active accumulated temperature during the safe period (Y=30166.74-262.656 φ -2.848 h -165.549 λ), the sunshine hours during the period when daily mean temperature above 10°C (Y=6665.195-110.344 φ -0.416 h -23416 λ), and the annual mean temperature (Y=73.237-0.735 φ -0.005 h -0.314 λ) were obtained by using geographic infermation system (GIS) technology and stepwise regression method, and finegrid calculation and residual error correction were carried out for each classification index. Based on the identified classification rules, four agroclimatic zones, namely latematuring doublerice cropping zone, middle and latematuring doublerice cropping zone, early and middlematuring doublerice cropping zone, and single riceratoon rice cropping zone, were classified for rice cropping in Guangxi, and the map of agroclimatic zones for rice cropping in Guangxi was built.
\[1\]Pollak L M, Corbett J D. Using GIS datasets to classify maizegrowing regions in Mexico and Central America. Agron J, 1993, 85: 11331139.
\[2\]Bazgeer S, Khalili A. Agroclimatological zoning of wheat in dry land farming (A case study of Kurdistan Province). Singapore J Trop Geograp, 1998, 19: 3950.
\[3\]Inthavong T, Kam S P, Hoanh C T, et al. Implementing the FAO methodology for agroecological zoning for crop suitability in Laos: A GIS approach// Fuskai S, Basnayake J. Increased Lowland Rice Production in the Mekong Region: Proceedings of an International Workshop. Vietiane, Laos, 2001: 292300.
\[4\]Patel N R, Mandal U K, Pande L M. Agroecological zoning system: A remote sensing and GIS perspective. J Agrometeorol, 2000, 2: 113.
\[5\]Rad R B, Rahimi M. Agroclimatological classification by using GIS (a case study of North West of Iran). Geophys Res Abstr, 2003, 5: 8.
\[6\]Greets S, Raes D, Garcia M, et al. Agroclimatic suitability mapping for crop production in the Bolivian Altiplano: A case study for quinoa. Agric Forest Meteorol, 2006, 139: 399412.
\[7\]Kara T, Guler M. AgroEcological zoning by GIS: A case study of the Bafra and Carsamba plains in Turkey. Asian J Chem, 2007, 19: 22772284.
\[8\]Bagherzadeh A, Daneshvar M M R. Physical land suitability evaluation for specific cereal crops using GIS at Mashhad plain, Northeast of Iran. Front Agric China, 2011, 5: 504513.
\[9\]Arayaa A, Keesstrab S D, Stroosnijderb L. A new agroclimatic classification for crop suitability zoning in northern semiarid Ethiopia. Agric Forest Meteorol, 2010, 150: 10571064.
\[10\]Ye Y, He F, Zhang X Y, et al. A GISbased study on suitability estimation of tea cultivation in Qimen county. Agric Sci Technol, 2011, 12: 149152.
\[11\]Qiu B W, Chi T H, Wang Q M. Fruit tree suitability assessment using GIS and multicriteria evaluation. Transact CSAE, 2005, 21: 96100.
\[12\]周治国, 曹卫星, 朱艳, 等. 基于GIS的作物生产管理信息系统. 农业工程学报, 2005, 21(1): 114118.
\[13\]冯晓云, 王建源. 基于GIS的山东农业气候资源及区划研究. 中国农业资源与区划, 2005, 26(2): 6062.
\[14\]何燕, 李政, 廖雪萍. 基于GIS的巴西陆稻IAPAR9 种植气候区划研究. 应用气象学报, 2007, 18(2): 219223.
\[15\]刘权. GIS在河流洪泛区灾害监测中应用研究. 地理科学, 2002(6): 712716.
\[16\]何燕, 李政, 徐世宏, 等. GIS支持下的广西早稻春季低温冷害区划研究. 自然灾害学报, 2009, 10(5): 178182.
\[17\]何燕, 李政, 钟仕全, 等. 广西晚稻低温冷害空间分析模型构建及其区划. 地理研究, 2010(6): 10371044.
\[18\]何燕, 李政, 徐世宏, 等. GIS在水稻“寒露风”冷害监测预警中的应用. 灾害学, 2012(1): 6872.
\[19\]朱勇, 段长春, 王鹏. 云南杂交水稻种植的气候优势及区划. 中国农业气象, 1999, 20(2): 2124.
\[20\]魏丽, 殷剑敏, 王怀清. GIS支持下的江西省优质早稻种植气候区划. 中国农业气象, 2002, 23(2): 2731.
\[21\]魏兴萍, 张艳军. 基于格网的重庆市水稻种植的农业区划. 现代农业科学. 2009, 16(6): 186187.
\[22\]凃方旭. 对广西水稻气候区划的探讨. 广西气象, 2006, 27(1): 3336.
\[23\]张灿权, 陈萍, 聂根新. 基于GIS的铜鼓绿色水稻种植区划. 江西农业学报, 2008, 20(8): 1920.
\[24\]广西壮族自治区气象局, 农业气候区划协助组. 广西农业气候资源分析与利用. 北京: 气象出版社, 1988: 108135.
\[25\]广西壮族自治区气候中心. 广西气候. 北京: 气象出版社, 2007: 90104.