Abstract: Rice production development is the key to maintaining the food security in China. To know the rice production potential in China, the levels of realistic productivity, actual production capacity and potential production capacity were calculated. The actual rice production capacity and potential production capacity in China could reach 226.2 and 253.9 million tons, respectively, 34.28 and 62.00 million tons higher than the realistic productivity. Moreover, the causes for the stagnant increase in rice yield per unit area were discussed and the scientific and technical strategies for promoting rice productivity were put forward. To further improve the rice production capacity and steadily increase national rice production, some measures are suggested, i.e. strengthening the amelioration of medium and low yield fields to improve the quality of farmland, making efforts on super highyielding rice breeding and extension to form the variety structure dominated by widely adaptive super highyielding rice cultivars, optimizing cultivation techniques for super high yield to construct a lowcost and highefficiency production technology system with simplified techniques at its core, and strengthening agricultural technology extension to reduce the yield difference between realistic yield and potential yield. In short, it is needed to promote scientific and technical supporting ability to the productive capacity of rice.

Key words: realistic productivity, realistic production capacity, potential production capacity

摘要： 发展水稻生产是确保我国粮食安全的关键。为了解我国水稻的生产能力，分析测算了我国水稻生产的现实生产力、现实生产能力和潜在生产能力，探讨了我国水稻单产徘徊的原因，提出了提高水稻生产能力的科技对策。研究结果表明，我国水稻现实生产能力和潜在生产能力分别可达2.2618亿t和25390亿t，分别比现实生产力高3 428万t和6 200万t。为进一步提高我国水稻生产能力，必须加强中低产田改造，提高耕地质量；培育和推广超级稻，形成以广适应性超级稻品种为主导的品种结构；优化栽培技术，构建以轻简技术为核心的节本高效生产技术体系；强化技术推广，缩小产量差异，切实提高科技对水稻生产能力提升的支撑能力。

关键词: 现实生产力, 现实生产能力, 潜在生产能力, 水稻, 生产技术