Chinese Journal OF Rice Science >
Response of Rice to Future Climate Change Based on Adaptive Adjustment in Southern Henan Province
Received date: 2015-12-22
Revised date: 2016-04-21
Online published: 2016-07-10
In this paper, we have chosen nine sample sites in Xinyang City,He′nan Province and conducted evaluation studies on the influence of climate changes based on single cropping rice with three representative varieties, including early middle and late mature. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios(SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, combining with Regional Climate Model(RCM), we have calculated and collected the daily meteorological data during BASE period (1961-1990) and further period (2021-2025) at the nine sample sites. Considering the direct gain effects of CO2 in the future, we have simulated and analyzed the possible impacts of the future climate changes on the rice yields by using ORYZAV3 model. On this basis, the adaptable adjustment schemes of rice yields in the different scenarios in the future are simulated. Rice yields, its stability and changes of total production in the southern Henan region are finally obtained after adaptable adjustments. As the result shows, if the adaptable adjustment or the consideration of the direct gain effects of CO2 in the future climate change is not taken, the simulated rice yields will decrease by 14.1% in A2 scenario and 8.6% in B2 scenario in this region. With the varieties and sowing time adjusted and fertilizer efficiency of CO2 under consideration, the yields will increase by 17.2% in A2 scenario and 15.7% in B2 scenario. Besides, the total production under the two scenarios increases respectively by 148% and 13.2% more than the stage of BASE in this region. So it will be more scientific and optimistic in the assessment research of the future climate change scenarios if we take into account the adaptable adjustment.
Key words： adaptable adjustment; climate change; regional climate mode; rice
MA Rui1, JIANG Min1,2, *, XUE Changying2, SUN Bin1, ZHOU Tongyu1 . Response of Rice to Future Climate Change Based on Adaptive Adjustment in Southern Henan Province[J]. Chinese Journal OF Rice Science, 2016 , 30(4) : 417 -430 . DOI: 10.16819/j.1001-7216.2016.5189
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